UK choice of A400M increases Il-76MF chances and decreases these of An-70

Published: 5/23/2000

With the announcement by Geoffrey Hoon, the UK's Minister of Defence, on 17th May, that the A400M is the long-term choice to replace the RAF's C-130 Hercules fleet, it seems to further reduce the chances of the An-7X being adopted by any of the European nations looking for an aircraft to fill the MLA requirement. Although not yet having flown and therefore unlikely to be in service for seven years, the A-400M appears to have stolen the march over the Ukrainian/Russian aircraft, despite enthusiastic support from some of the countries involved in the competition including Germany. There has particularly been keen support for the venture in Germany, including the Air Truck consortium of potential joint manufacturers made up of some Germany's leading aerospace companies. The UK deal is however, conditional and still requires other European countries to come on board, and price and commercial negotiations to be successful. Although the UK never considered the potential purchase of the An-7X, the choice of a European solution over a US programme, and an undertaking to buy at least 25 of the aircraft rather than acquiring more of the updated C-130Js, some of which have just come into service with the RAF, is interpreted as a commitment by the British to the concept of European procurement decisions. This move, as such, is likely to put pressure on other nations involved to go for the A-400M solution. Further bad news for Antonov was the decision, although not unexpected, to go for the C-17 over the Air Foyle-supplied An124-100 to fill the UK's interim strategic lift requirement until the delivery of the A-400M. A decision made all the more galling to Air Foyle by the fact that it is their An-124's leased by the Ministry of Defence that provided the transport for the UK's men and materials for the intervention in Sierra Leone. This is despite comments from Sir Robert Walmsley, head of procurement at the Ministry of Defence, that operational and reliability issues decided against the An-124. According to Gregor von Kursell, Director for International Media Relations with DASA 'the UK decision in favour of the A400M has drastically reduced the An-70 chances in Germany'. He also stated that although DASA did report favourably on the evaluation of the An-7X proposal at the request of the German government, 'we have never wanted to participate in the A-7X programme, we have just been fulfilling governmental orders'. While undertaking the evaluation of the An-7X, DASA's Hamburg civil operation has been participating in the design work on the A400M. According to von Kursell, however, everything is not lost for the An-7X, as there remains considerable German support for what is seen as a cheaper option. Although for DASA, with the EADS consolidation and CASA's desire to be involved in the A400M programme, its involvement was made even more unlikely. Any political pressure will also have to fight against a change in view at the top, with the German Defence Minister Rudolf Scharping appearing to retreat from his earlier favourable comments on the programme by looking for a 'joint European solution of the European needs'. At the same time, there are indications that Russian interest in the An-70 is declining and growing in its rival, the PS-90 powered and stretched Il-76MF, a view supported by a leaked report for the Ministry of Defence in January 2000, which suggested the Il-76MF would be cheaper and come into service quicker than the An-70, offering superior lifting capability. In December Vladimir Putin, then acting Russian PM, visited Tashkent-based TAPO producer of the Il-76, and expressed his interest in the Il-76MF. Earlier this year, TAPO was inspected by Anatoly Kornukov who promised Vadim Kucherov, TAPO General Director, to place a order for the Il-76MF after the plane finishes its military acceptance trials. Il-76MF's chances for a local order were further increased by the Chinese decision to acquire 20 more D30KP-powered Il-76s in addition to the 12 delivered in 1997-1998. With the large Chinese order sealed, TAPO will be able to offer the Russian Air Force a lower unit price per Il-76MF airframe. Vadim Kucherov said that with its higher payload capability (60 tons against 35-45 tons for An-70) and longer range, the Il-76 is better suited for Russian requirements, while costing almost the same as a series-built An-70. He stated that a simple comparison proves this claim - ten Il-76MFs can deliver 375 tons of freight over a distance of 7000km while the same job would require 32 An-70s. Before the Russian financial crisis in 1998, the Il-76MF was priced at $45 million over the Il-76MD's $20-25m. Kucherov says the price remains the same, but for already-assembled airframes TAPO is ready to give 'a heavy discount' taking account of a lower prices for electrical power, materials and components at a time the airframes were built. The Il-76 entered service in 1974 and the Russian Air Force has built up vast stockpiles of spare parts for the type and already have trained crews and aircraft maintenance systems. The Russian are however, unlikely to be entirely happy with the exit of the An-70 from the competition and on 19th May, the well-connected Independent Military Review said it was likely that President Putin would state this at the ILA2000 air show in Berlin, where the An-7X will be flying, by giving his personal support to the An-7X programme. It is unlikely to make any difference to a programme that is seen as being largely dead in the water both in Russia and Germany.

Article ID: 1806