Antonov plans roll out in 2001 (1220 words)

Published: 7/14/2000

Originally intended as the carrying vehicle for the Buran space shuttle programme that ground to a halt in 1991, the 250 tonne payload An-225 Mriya has been resurrected for a second time in the last couple of years by Antonov, with the intention of getting the original prototype of the aircraft flying by June of next year according to Konstantin Luskakov, General Director of heavy lift carrier Antonov Airlines. The prototype of the massive aircraft was placed in storage at Antonov's facility in Gostomel in 1994 and according to some sources, was then stripped of its engines and some of its avionics. During the latter part of the nineties there have been various plans for the aircraft's revival including a plan to use it as the launch vehicle for the European Hotol space vehicle programme. In 1998, Antonov announced its intention to finish a second prototype, which had earlier been abandoned as part of a project costing between $20-50m. Recent reports however, have suggested that the aircraft still remains largely unfinished. According to Bruce Bird of Air Foyle, Antonov Airlines partner, the aircraft will be rolled out in January of 2001 with certification by the end of March, as Antonov have already completed well over 200 hours of flights during the early stages of the programme, which included cargo flights to the US and Canada. Bird expects the aircraft to be available for commercial activity in June of 2001. The reason for the renewed enthusiasm for the aircraft has come from expected significant growth in demand for the extra heavy lift capacity offered by the An-225 in the form of aerospace contracts and the carrying of turbines and other equipment to power projects in China and South East Asia. The total heavy lift market in 1999, according to the UK based Institute of Transport Management, was provisionally valued at $300m This was later down graded to $200m, reflecting the $174m of revenues generated by the two largest players, Antonov and Volga Dnepr, in 1999, who are widely accepted to have 90% of the global market. Given the estimates of 13-15% annual growth in the market, the suspicion of some commentators is that the investment of $20-50m in the first An-225 and an even larger amount to finish the second aircraft to provide a backup, will prove extremely difficult to recover in a market that Vince Seeger of Heavy Lift argues can be fully served by the existing An-124 capacity. Brenda Drumm of the Institute of Transport Management however, states that Foyle has proved itself at the cutting edge of heavy lift development historically and that the heavy lift market has not been defined by its static nature in the past and is unlikely to do so in the future. Bruce Bird argues that the aircraft will not be used in the ad hoc cargo market and not operated continuously along the model of conventional operation of aircraft of this type. Instead it will be engaged in long-term premium contracts to move very specific loads for a single or couple of customers, loads which may not currently be moved by air in their entirety. His illustration of potential contracts which Air Foyle has examined, is the carriage of aircraft assemblies from the Boeing plant in Wichita, Kansas to Seattle in Oregon. This would use both the aircraft's height and load- carrying capability, according to Air Foyle, to carry a cargo made up of a complete 737 fuselage internally, with complete nose sections for the 747, 777 and 767 carried externally. Re-emphasising the long-term dedicated nature of future business for the An-225, Bird makes the point that a customer such as Boeing, would be required to invest heavily in the gantry and other equipment to load its components. The market for the aircraft is in the short term is therefore unlikely to exceed the initial aircraft, although the second aircraft could potentially be finished to act as back up The cost of the latter is however, difficult to estimate, but according to sources, despite Antonov's undertaking to finish the second prototype in 1998, the aircraft still requires a considerable amount of work. Planned improvements in the weight bearing of the An-225 floor will also allow solutions for carrying large dense loads and according to Bird, who has been canvassing customers since late last year, has already received a favourable response from power equipment manufacturers such as ABB and Siemens. Such customers are interested in moving awkwardly shaped loads of over 120 tonnes (the capacity of the An-124) and the design bureau's approval payload can be raised to 150 tonnes. As to the view that there is no demand for an aircraft the size of the An-225, Bird replies that similar views were expressed when the Shorts Belfast first became available to Heavy Lift and prior to that, on the launch of the Guppy. The same argument was also made when the An-124s became available to commercial customers. Experience has shown that if you give the customer more capacity they will use it. Air Foyle however, does not argue that the An-124 will be displaced by the An-225, but that the new aircraft will simply grow the market to new loads, previously requiring expensive to carry heavy-flight handling equipment or simply too large to contemplate carriage by air. Antonov Airlines also sees considerable potential for the aircraft in performing a satellite air launch programme similar to that offered by competitor Polyot , but for larger satellite launches with payloads of up to 5.5 tonnes compared with the Air Launch limit of below 3.5 tonnes using the ex-Russian Air Force An-124s. NASA are reported to have been approached for the use of the aircraft for the new generation of reusable spacecraft, with Antonov proposing the aircraft as an ideal solution for piggy back and underslung payloads and considerably more proven than some of the suggested solutions including the combining two B-52s as a single launch platform. The engines for the aircraft will come from Motor Sich and according to reports will cost a reported $20m. They are unlikely to be new engines according to sources, but upgraded series one D-18Ts to series three standard with new cowlings to reduce noise . This will give the aircraft a lifetime of 20,000 hours, a considerable improvement on the 3,500-hour engines that the An-225 was originally equipped with before it was mothballed and partially stripped to provide parts for An-124-100s. Other work on the aircraft includes remedial action to reverse the effects of being parked outside over the last seven years. The overhaul work for the aircraft is being undertaken in Antonov's new hanger at Gostomel, where the aircraft is currently parked and will include the fitting of anti collision equipment. The question of funding the development is, as ever, shrouded in a veil of secrecy, but according to some sources, Antonov Airlines has generated sufficient surpluses to fund the development and it seems likely that Motor Sich, having seen the immediate prospects of the D-27 disappear with the German decision not to adopt the An-70, will be keen to get another major programme underway provided basic working capital can be found.Alexy Isaikin has also hinted that VD will have some involvement althouhg this has not been specified. Antonov is now regarded as being up to the task of finishing the aircraft having considerably beefed up their computerised design capability in the last couple of years, ahead of the launch of the An-70, and now regarded as having considerable capacity to focus on the An-225.

Article ID: 1944