Various sources of information suggest plans for a new civilian aircraft, but the gap between the idea and the reality seems wide (900 words)

Published: 11/6/2001

Having exhibited its An-74TK-300 in July 2001 at the Paris Air Show, Antonov and other sources continue to leak plans for future development, with media reports in September suggesting that the designer and producer (KhGAPP) is working towards a larger aircraft, designated the An-148. Earlier reports had hinted at the notion of a larger version of the An-74TK-300, stretched to six metres, called the An-174. The latest news, however, suggests that a new civilian An-148 would share little with the An-74-300 family, being to all intents and purposes a new aircraft, with a new wing both longer and wider than the An-74-300. Sources say such a design reflects the economic deficiencies of operating the An-74, originally designed to carry 9-10 tonnes of cargo, as a passenger aircraft with loads that fall well below those expected for an aircraft of its size and operating costs. It is claimed that the new aircraft is scheduled for flight tests in 2004 and will be designed to carry between 60-70 passengers, as opposed to the An-74's 52, with a cruising speed of 850km/hr and a range of 5,000-7,000km. However, the partial nature of the information may well mean that Antonov and KhGAPP are simply testing the market to see what interest might be generated by the broad proposal. This is supported by reports that the final configuration of the aircraft has yet to be defined. Sources say that the aircraft is planned to operate in a variety of layouts, with a takeoff weight with 68 passengers, of 37.5 tonnes. They add that the new aircraft would achieve significant improvements in fuel efficiency due to better aerodynamics as well as a higher ceiling of 12,000m and improved range, with a price of a full production aircraft of no less than $12m. Some consider that the proposed performance of the aircraft is optimistic, and they are sceptical that an aircraft with similar aerodynamics to the An-74 powered by D-36-4As could achieve 800 km/hr, never mind the anticipated 850km/hr, although it has been suggested that the aircraft would use a specially modified higher thrust D-436. There is also some doubt that Antonov and KhGAPP can deliver a flying prototype within three years, particularly as no sources of finance have yet been revealed. Antonov has not distinguished itself historically in terms of the speed of its development, with the An-70, even in better conditions, taking more than 20 years to reach its current stage of development. The minimum period of development is more likely to be seven years, reflecting the current resource and financial constraints on both the design bureau and the producer, if, indeed, the programme goes ahead at all. The market for the new aircraft is also debatable, and may even be non-existent, given that there is no current or ongoing requirement for the size of aircraft with the stated range. Sources within Antonov contest this, claiming that considerable demand exists in Russia, particularly, for an aircraft of this size and range. This assessment is not borne out by the requirements of Russian and CIS airlines for regional aircraft, where they appear to be looking for the 50-90 seat aircraft, but with substantially less range. Sukhoi, in its collaboration with Boeing and previous discussions with Alliance Aircraft, for the development of 50-90 seat regional jet for the Russian market had in mind a maximum range of 3000kms. The range of the aircraft does appear therefore to be too extensive, particularly given the fuel efficiency of the D-436. However, it could be that the market for the An-148 may be in China. In late August, during the visit of the Chinese Minister of Civilian Aviation to Ukraine, ANTK Antonov and KhGAPP signed an MoU with the Chinese State Export-Import Aviation Corporation concerning the purchase of two An-74TK-300s, with the option to increase the number to 30 aircraft. All in all, Antonov's motivation for the leaked reports may well boil down to a struggle between it and KhGAPP for control of the government's support of the aerospace industry. According to reports, KhGAPP took the initiative for the development of the An-74-300 and had managed to lobby the authorities for possible support for leasing the aircraft and received a preliminary decision, with 30-40% of the aircraft to go to Ukrainian airlines. Antonov has reportedly managed to have the An-148 included in the, as yet unfunded, Ukrainian programme for aviation development through to 2010. The lack of specific detail to date is attributed to the need to get the right package before presenting the programme to potential customers and investors. For Antonov, blasted by the Ukrainian Minister of Transport Valery Pustovoitenko in August for failing to come up with suitable designs, the new aircraft offers it a chance to keep the show on the road in the absence of any success for the An-38 and the continued uncertainty surrounding the future of the An-70. The bureau's other major prospect, the An-180, dating back to 1991, is also considered to be unrealistic, given the costs of developing the unusual twin tractor turbofans(D-27) for the 165 passenger aircraft, originally scheduled to be in service in the late 1990s. The An-148 may represent the only opportunity for the design bureau and producer to keep the government happy and the limited flow of funds coming, but it is unlikely that the aircraft will advance beyond prototype.

Article ID: 2887