Rumours of change of government persist

Published: 11/23/2000

We have had a recurrence of the rumours that Kasyanov could be fired in the near future. The trivial evidence for this was Putin's flippant comment last week that if the government did not improve things for the scientists in Novosibirsk, they would be fired. The firmer evidence is the signs of an attack on deputy prime minister Kudrin, who is one of the main candidates to succeed Putin. This evidence is circumstantial: Kudrin has been summoned for questioning by the St Petersburg prosecutors, to give evidence in a local corruption investigation. The idea is that by attaching Kudrin to the word corruption, his opponents want to weaken his chances of becoming prime minister. The person behind the attack on Kudrin is rumoured to be Sergei Ivanov, secretary of the security council. Ivanov is a former KGB officer, and an old friend of Putin's. Kudrin worked alongside Putin in the office of the mayor of St Petersburg, and is a key liberal in the cabinet. Ivanov is opposed to Kudrin's liberal reforms, and wants to impose a firm hand before liberalising. The other event today was an attack by Kasyanov on Shoigu, the minister of emergencies. Kasyanov accused Shoigu's ministry of corruption. Shoigu, like Kasyanov, is seen as a member of the Family, and was a rival to Putin to be nominated as Yeltsin's successor. Presumably Kasyanov was attacking Shoigu to remove another possible prime minister. He has already moved Reiman, the minister of communications out of the way, by clearing up a scandal over mobile telephone licenses that Reiman had initiated. Politics is clearly continuing in Moscow, but it seems unlikely that Kasyanov will be fired before the budget is passed by the Duma. Removing the prime minister would create too much confusion, and would stall all work in the Duma until the prime minister was approved. What is interesting is that Putin seems unable to decide what he wants to do. It was his unwillingness to fire Kasyanov that saved the prime minister's job in the early autumn, and he seems to be indecisive now. The same is happening with the posts of chairman of the central bank, and the president of Gazprom. The current incumbents are ready to leave, but Putin cannot decide which power group to please, and which to disappoint. The problem is that he has always lived by the book, but there is no rule book in Kremlin politics.

Article ID: 2207