Completion but few surprises

Published: 6/30/2000

The federal programme for the aerospace industry expected in the Spring has been finally completed. The interdepartmental commission has approved the aerospace plan for Russia 2001-2015 according to Vyacheslav Grishin, head of the department dealing with the plan at the restructured Ministry of Economics. His statements to Interfax however, cast little real light on the detail of the plan and as expected produced little in the way of surprises. Missing from Grishin's comments is any reference to the development of aircraft financing structures for the air transport industry to allow them to acquire aircraft, although a general investment over a 15-year period of 185 billion rubles was mentioned. The plan originally developed by the Russian Aerospace Agency and the no longer independent FSVT in conjunction with the various of the industries institutes was amended by the commission before final approval. The plan according to Grishin is in two stages, the first dealing with the period 2001-2005 and concerned with the completion of programmes currently under development, namely the Il-96T/M, the Tu-334 and the Mi-38 and Ka-62 helicopter programmes. More vaguely, the first stage will also provide assistance to programmes that failed to build their prototypes because of financing shortfalls. The second stage is targeted at creating the new aircraft that will be competitive with foreign aircraft well into the 21st century. The commission believes that the industry's recovery through the plan could lead to sales of one trillion rubles ($40 billion) for domestic aerospace technology in an industry employing 500,000 people (currently employing 300,000). The investment required to achieve this level of revenue within 15 years would be 185 billion rubles ( $7.4 billion) at 1999 prices , which will in turn generate tax receipts for the Federal government of 20 billion rubles. The funding for the recovery according to Grishin would come 30% from government sources and the balance from 'non budgetary' sources in form of loans or other undisclosed funds. More generally the commission said the second phase of development would aim to produce aircraft with greatly enhanced safety levels and substantially enhance noise regulation. For Grishin the need for the programme has become pressing given that 70% of the country's 1400 civil aircraft were built in the 60s and 70s and are in need of replacement, a situation unlikely to be resolved easily given the general condition of civil aviation operators. It appears that we continue to await a concrete plan, but the statements to date do have the feeling that the government is more concerned with being seen to be doing something than actually taking the tough decisions required. Klebanov's pre-election comments of consolidation of the industry into two or three enterprises seems increasingly questionable given the appointment of Alexander Dondukov as minister responsible for the industry from the ailing Yakolev Bureau. The recent revival of the concept according to reports and with Dondukov's patronage, of Yakolev and Saratov building a business jet , the Yak-48, based on the work Yak undertook for IAI on the Galaxy, does not immediately cast him in the role of a ruthless industry consolidator.

Article ID: 1894